MOGADISHU, Somalia — An Ethiopian opposition figure has warned that Addis Ababa is rapidly losing influence in Somalia, describing recent developments as a “diplomatic miscalculation” that could reshape alliances across the Horn of Africa.
Jawar Mohammed, a prominent activist and former ally of Abiy Ahmed, said in a Facebook post that Ethiopia-backed political and military arrangements in Somalia are unraveling amid growing involvement by regional rivals.
Jawar, who played a key role in protests that helped bring Abiy to power before later becoming a critic, pointed to the reported defeat of Abdulaziz Laftagareen, leader of Somalia’s South West State, as a turning point.
Laftagareen, long seen as aligned with Ethiopia, “has been forced to step down” after being overtaken by Somali military forces ordered by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Jawar wrote, alleging those forces were backed by Egypt and Turkey. The claims could not be independently verified.
He said Laftagareen had traveled to Addis Ababa for consultations with Abiy and returned with assurances, but Ethiopian troops in the regional capital failed to preserve his position.
Jawar said the strategic city of Baidoa, a longtime hub of Ethiopian influence, has now slipped from Addis Ababa’s orbit after roughly two decades, opening the door for increased Egyptian and Turkish involvement.
He also warned that Puntland, another region historically influenced by Ethiopia, could follow. According to Jawar, the United Arab Emirates — which had worked with Ethiopia in Puntland — recently dismantled a drone and intelligence facility in Bosaso under pressure from Saudi Arabia and relocated it to Ethiopia after severing ties with Mogadishu.
In a further sign of shifting dynamics, Jawar cited what he described as a message from Somalia’s federal government to regional leaders: “The UAE and Ethiopia will not save you.”
Regional stakes and competing narratives
Security analysts say Jawar’s remarks reflect intensifying geopolitical competition in the Horn of Africa, though some caution that his account is politically charged.
“Jawar’s real concern is about Ethiopia’s overextension,” said Ali Ahmed, a Horn of Africa researcher based in Nairobi. “But his framing also reflects opposition narratives inside Ethiopia, where foreign policy is increasingly contested.”
Faisa Guleid, another regional expert, said Somalia has been diversifying its partnerships in recent years. “Mogadishu has been strengthening ties with Turkey and others as it rebuilds state institutions,” she said. “That doesn’t necessarily mean Ethiopia is being entirely pushed out, but its influence is being challenged.”
Turkey has been a major security partner to Somalia, providing training and infrastructure support, while Egypt’s role has grown amid broader tensions with Ethiopia, including disputes over the Nile and the Horn of Africa.
Somaliland deal at center of tensions
Jawar linked the developments to Ethiopia’s controversial push to secure sea access through Somaliland, which Mogadishu considers part of its territory.
He described the policy as “ill-conceived” and lacking strategic preparation, arguing it pushed Somalia’s federal government closer to Egypt and Turkey while drawing Saudi Arabia into alignment with those countries.
“Not only may the port fail to materialize,” Jawar wrote, “but we have also increased and unified our adversaries, weakened our influence in the region, and exposed our national interests to risk.”
Ethiopia has not publicly responded to Jawar’s latest remarks.
Uncertain outlook
The situation remains fluid, and key elements of Jawar’s claims — including battlefield developments and the extent of foreign military involvement — remain difficult to independently confirm.
Still, analysts agree that shifting alliances, maritime ambitions, and regional rivalries are raising the stakes.
“What we’re seeing is a recalibration,” said another regional observer. “Whether it amounts to a strategic loss for Ethiopia or simply a transition to a more competitive environment is still an open question.”