MOGADISHU, Somalia – Saturday’s election of Abdikadir Aw Cali Firdhiye as President of Somalia’s new North Eastern State has sparked rising political tensions across the region.
Formed in contested regions of Sool, Sanaag and Ceyn, the new state directly challenges territorial claims by both Somaliland and Puntland authorities.
Firdhiye, a leader from the SSC-Khaatumo movement, was elected in Las Anod after officially signing the state’s newly adopted constitution.
He received full backing from Somalia’s federal government, which praised his leadership and pledged to support the state’s political and administrative formation.
“This is a major assertion of federal authority in disputed zones,” said analyst Yusuf Mohamed. “It shifts the political ground entirely.”
Somaliland officials called the move “provocative,” saying it violates their self-declared sovereignty and threatens stability in northern territories they claim.
Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi Irro said the election undermines peace efforts and challenges Somaliland’s long-standing push for independence.
By supporting Firdhiye, a vocal critic of Somaliland’s control in Sool, Mogadishu risks direct confrontation with the breakaway regional administration.
“This isn’t just symbolic—Somaliland sees this as a red line,” said Sahra Elmi, a regional conflict researcher based in Hargeisa.
Somaliland’s early years were marred by lack of preparation, internal opposition, and violent infighting that displaced thousands between 1993 and 1995.
Critics note it took Somaliland nearly a decade to build stability and accountability—despite now dismissing Las Anod’s grassroots governance efforts.
Puntland also rejected the new state, calling it a breach of the federal compact and a threat to its historical territorial authority.
Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni accused the federal government of bypassing Garowe and favoring one side in a contested area.
“This violates federal principles and sets a dangerous precedent,” said a Puntland adviser who warned of worsening political instability.
“Puntland views this as federal overreach,” added Dr. Abdirizak Samatar, a governance expert based in Nairobi.
Somaliland only held Las Anod militarily from 2007–2022, with limited administrative control or deep community engagement east of Caynabo.
Puntland, meanwhile, faced internal conflict between 2001–2005 and lacked full control over Dhulbahante territories for years, with Las Anod under Somaliland until early 2023.
The federal government maintains the move promotes inclusive governance and empowers communities long caught between Somaliland and Puntland rivalries.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud praised Firdhiye’s election, saying it reflects the will of people historically sidelined in national political processes.
Federal officials argue that recognizing local administrations in disputed areas is necessary to strengthen national unity and build lasting peace.
“It’s either a bold federal vision—or a risky gamble,” said analyst Halima Barre. “Much depends on how Mogadishu manages next steps.”
Other Somali regional states remain fragile. Decades of history show state-building is slow, shaped by conflict, compromise, and community leadership.
Analysts argue that—with dedication, investment and inclusive leadership—the new North Eastern State could mirror the long, gradual success of others.
“This could trigger a new phase in Somalia’s federal dynamics,” said Ahmed Warsame, an independent political analyst based in Nairobi.
The new administration reshapes Somalia’s political landscape, forcing both Somaliland and Puntland to reassess their long-held governance claims.
Analysts warn tensions could escalate into conflict unless inclusive dialogue is prioritized between federal authorities and the regional stakeholders.
“This is about governance rights in contested zones—not just one leader,” said Fatima Hassan, a Mogadishu-based regional analyst.
With shifting power dynamics and rising stakes, Somalia’s north now faces uncertain—but potentially transformative—days ahead.