MOGADISHU, Somalia — Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud attended the inauguration of Ethiopia’s Nile River dam Monday, stirring diplomatic tensions across the Horn of Africa.
The ceremony marked the launch of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a project long opposed by Egypt and Sudan over water security fears.
President Mohamud praised Ethiopia’s $4 billion GERD project, calling for cooperation instead of conflict in his address at the inauguration ceremony.
Egypt views the dam as an existential threat. Cairo also warned it could dangerously reduce its share of Nile water and affect agriculture and population needs.
Ethiopia insists the project is vital for its energy needs and dismisses concerns raised by downstream nations as exaggerated.
President Mohamud’s appearance at the event surprised many analysts, who say it risks undermining Somalia’s ties with Egypt and regional diplomatic alliances.
“Somalia is walking a tightrope,” said Abdishakur Ali, a Global Affairs Analyst. “Attending this ceremony could be interpreted as taking sides in the Nile conflict.”
The visit comes just as Egypt plans to deploy troops to Somalia under the new African Union peacekeeping mission known as AUSSOM.
Egypt’s military presence in Somalia has raised concerns in Ethiopia, which sees it as a potential threat given ongoing tensions over Nile waters.
“Addis Ababa is watching the troop deployment very carefully,” Ali said. “They see strategic motives behind Cairo’s peacekeeping role.”
In October 2024, Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea signed a tripartite pact in Asmara, pledging to support Somalia’s sovereignty and regional stability together.
The alliance aimed to counter Ethiopia’s ambitions to secure Red Sea access and to resist unilateral actions over Nile River resources.
President Mohamud’s decision to attend the dam inauguration could now damage that alliance and invite friction with Egypt and Eritrea alike.
“Cairo didn’t expect this from an ally,” Ali said Ali. “It may reshape Egypt’s political and military calculations in Somalia.”
No official statement was issued from Mogadishu explaining the reasoning behind the president’s attendance or its implications for regional diplomacy.
Observers say the visit could complicate Egypt’s troop deployment, which was initially welcomed as support in Somalia’s fight against al-Shabab militants.
Ethiopia has voiced concern over foreign troops “aligned with rival interests” operating close to its borders, heightening regional military unease.
“It’s about optics and influence,” said Somali foreign policy expert Abdi Yusuf. “This sends mixed signals to both allies and adversaries.”
Somalia now risks straining long-standing diplomatic ties just as it faces internal security challenges and rising pressure from Ethiopia’s maritime demands.
